For Football Fans

Football fans, here’s something for you to gnaw on.

Just before the season started (after the preseason games) most major sports outlets have some sort of Power Ranking for the NFL. CBS Sportsline, ESPN, and Fox Sports Net are three that I follow pretty regularly. To illustrate how wrong they can be, I’ve included a table here that shows all 32 teams in order of their preseason CBS Sportsline rank and give the ESPN and FSN ranks in subsequent columns followed by their CURRENT RECORD, where they currently rank in their division, and whether they have a shot—even just barely—at the playoffs or not (a blank field means they are still in contention).


CBS Sportsline (By Team)/ESPN Power Rankings/Fox Sports Net/Current Record/Current Standings/Playoffs?
1 Patriots 1, 1, 8-5, 1st, AFC East
2 Eagles 3, 2, 5-8, 4th, NFC East
3 Steelers 5, 8, 8-5, 2nd, AFC North
4 Panthers 10, 7, 9-4, T-1st, NFC South
5 Falcons 6, 9, 8-5, 3rd, NFC South
6 Jaguars 16, 13, 9-4, 2nd, AFC South
7 Colts 2, 3, 13-0, 1st, AFC South, Clinched home field
8 Raiders 23, 18, 4-9, 4th, AFC West, No
9 Ravens 8, 10, 4-9, T-3rd, AFC North, No
10 Vikings 4, 11, 8-5, 2nd, NFC North
11 Cardinals 21, 15, 4-9, 3rd, NFC West, No
12 Chiefs 13, 12, 8-5, T-2nd, AFC West
13 Broncos 11. 20, 10-3, 1st, AFC West
14 Chargers 7, 4, 8-5, T-2nd, AFC West
15 Bills 14, 5, 4-9, 3rd, AFC East, No
16 Jets 9, 6, 3-10, 4th, AFC East, No
17 Saints 20, 16, 3-10, 4th, NFC South, No
18 Rams 12, 19, 5-8, 2nd, NFC West
19 Seahawks 15, 14, 11-2, 1st, NFC West, Clinched Div.
20 Packers 17, 24, 3-10, 4th, NFC North, No
21 Cowboys 19, 23, 8-5, 2nd, NFC East
22 Bears 29, 29, 9-4, 1st, NFC North
23 Bengals 18, 17, 10-3, 1st, AFC North
24 Lions 24, 21, 4-9, 3rd, NFC North, No
25 Texans 22, 22, 1-12, 4th, AFC South, No
26 Buccaneers 28, 25, 9-4, T-1st, NFC South
27 Titans 27, 27, 4-9, 3rd, AFC South, No
28 Giants 25, 28, 9-4, 1st, NFC East
29 Redskins 26, 26, 7-6, 3rd, NFC East
30 Dolphins 30, 30, 6-7, 2nd, AFC East
31 49ers 32, 31, 2-11, 4th, NFC West, No
32 Browns 31, 32, 4-9, T-3rd, AFC North, No

Next I’ve broken the AFC and NFC down to see which teams have a shot at the playoffs. (This is how I devised my last column above.) In this scenario, the magic number is not the total number of games a team must win to make the playoffs, rather it is the total number of games a team must be able to win by the end of the season in order for them not to be eliminated this week. In the NFL, the team with the best record in each division (two conferences with four divisions each) will make the playoffs. Then the two teams (per conference) with the best records after that make up the wild card entrants. The top two teams from each conference will earn a bye week in the opening round, while the #3 and #4 seeds play the #5 and #6 seeds.

In the AFC presently, Indianapolis has already clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs (up to the Super Bowl). Denver and Cincinnati both lead their divisions with 10 wins, and New England leads theirs with 8. None of those three teams have yet clinched their divisions, so it is possible that they may not make it to the playoffs, but as of right now they’re in and the two wild card contenders are Jacksonville with 9 wins and a three way tie with 8 wins between San Diego, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. Since San Diego and Kansas City will play each other in two weeks, we know that one of them will have at least 9 wins, which means that any team in the AFC must be able to win 9 games by the end of the season in order it still be in contention this week. That means this week’s magic number in the AFC is 9. With that determined, the only other AFC team in contention besides those already mentioned, with 3 games left, is Miami, who currently has 6 wins.

Indy-13
Jacksonville-9
Denver-10
Cincy-10
San Diego-8
Kansas City-8
New England-8
Pittsburgh-8
Miami-6

In the NFC, Seattle has a playoff berth with 11 wins. Chicago, the NY Giants, Tampa Bay and Carolina each lead their respective divisions with 9 wins. Since Tampa Bay and Carolina are tied with more wins than the next teams in contention, that makes one of them an automatic Wild Card team this week. After that, Dallas, Minnesota, and Atlanta are knotted up with 8. None of those teams are guaranteed to win at least one more game, which leaves the NFC Magic Number at 8 this week. Knowing that, Washington (with 7 wins), Philadelphia and St. Louis (both with 5 wins) could each still win 8 games, keeping their playoff dreams alive, if just on life support.


Seattle-11
Chicago-9
Carolina-9
Giants-9
Tampa Bay-9
Dallas-8
Minnesota-8
Atlanta-8
Washington-7
Philly-5
St. Louis-5

None of this takes into account the NFL’s tie-breaker policies, which might really make your head swim. Of course, if they ended up with 6 teams and only one spot, only one team could make it. But I just thought you might like to see how they stand.

*Editor's Note: My table in Word did not translate to Blogger.com webspeak. I hope you can read it.
**Editor’s other note: It’s all academic anyway. Indianapolis is going to win the whole thing anyway.